The H5N1 virus is deadly to humans, but so far has not gone pandemic, as New Scientist's latest issue explains. H5N1 kills over 60% of the people it infects, the fact is not new, however the potentially leathal concept that 'Five easy steps to bird flu pandemic' coveys is expressed in the title. Research has shown that just 5 mutations in 2 genes has allowed H5N1 to spread between mammals in the lab. Ron Fouchier explained his work at a recent scientific meeting describing that the H5N1 once mutated can "spread as efficiently as the flew". Surely this fact combined with the 60% mortality should strike fear into the public's heart?
Fouchier's research was conducted on ferrets. They first gave H5N1 3 mutations know to adapt the virus to mammals, on giving this to the ferrets they inevitably died, but didn't transfer it on to others. By the tenth time the virus from previous ferrets was given to new ferrets it had mutated many times, and now could spread between them, thus it was air-born. Two further genes were identified as causing H5N1 to spread.
However Doubts have been expressed towards the validity of these results. It is questionable that we can immediately generalise results conducted on ferrets straight to humans, lessening the worry about the 5 mutation rule 'New Scientist' commits to. On the other hand, ferrets have been proven to have a similar reactions to virus's that humans may experience. Still this leaves the statement of 5 mutations unfalsifiable to humans, as the exact mutations needed for the virus to spread between humans would be different. The bottom line is; we have to stay vigilant to the very real threat posed, even if it can not be directly proved that only 5 mutations are needed to start a pandemic in humans, we have to do everything we can not to lose that 60% of the people infected.
Fouchier's research was conducted on ferrets. They first gave H5N1 3 mutations know to adapt the virus to mammals, on giving this to the ferrets they inevitably died, but didn't transfer it on to others. By the tenth time the virus from previous ferrets was given to new ferrets it had mutated many times, and now could spread between them, thus it was air-born. Two further genes were identified as causing H5N1 to spread.
However Doubts have been expressed towards the validity of these results. It is questionable that we can immediately generalise results conducted on ferrets straight to humans, lessening the worry about the 5 mutation rule 'New Scientist' commits to. On the other hand, ferrets have been proven to have a similar reactions to virus's that humans may experience. Still this leaves the statement of 5 mutations unfalsifiable to humans, as the exact mutations needed for the virus to spread between humans would be different. The bottom line is; we have to stay vigilant to the very real threat posed, even if it can not be directly proved that only 5 mutations are needed to start a pandemic in humans, we have to do everything we can not to lose that 60% of the people infected.
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